Colin Powell's endorsement

Endorsements are something that pundits like to make a big deal out of, but my favorite bloggers have assured me in their posts that they often mean very little. Except, I think, when you're a Democrat labeled as inexperienced in foreign policy and the endorsement comes from Colin Powell.

Nate Silver has pointed out that Obama's recent momentum surge in the polls is stalling. Not to worry, says Nate. There may be another surge once the last debate has been factored into all the polling. But I'm not so sure on that one. I mean, the last debate had Obama win but it gave McCain something of a hat to hang on...even if that something was just a line about how he's not George Bush and about a jerk who isn't a licensed plumber. Regardless of whatever bounce Obama does or doesn't get from this most recent debate, Nate assures us that just because Obama's momentum surge is stalling does not mean that it's going to reverse towards a surge in momentum towards John McCain. That sounds right.

But two new factors have been introduced today. One is the announcement record amount of money that Obama raised in September. That announcement won't help him too much in the polls, I wouldn't think. On the one hand, his fund raising ability shows how competent he is, on the other hand, it paints John McCain as the underdog, and Obama has done well as an underdog. It will however, help Obama overshadow McCain in advertising.

But going back to endorsements. Despite the fact that endorsements often do not translate into big bounces in the polls, this one from Colin Powell will, I think, mean something. It may cause a big bounce but I'm betting that it won't. What it will do is further justify why Obama supporters support Obama and give very little left for the McCain campaign to hang it's hat on. I mean, say bin Laden does make a video right now. Everyone just assumes that it will mean a surge in support for McCain. But why? Especially when you've got Colin Powell backing the other guy. The ramifications of Powell's endorsement may or may not show up in the polls. But it does mean something very substantial.

And it is telling that a moderate Republican foreign policy guy has clearly stepped over to Obama and condemned his own party. If the Republican Party loses this November, they may have to reconsider their entire playbook if they ever want to regain much of any thing.

Plus, on a much more profound level, Powell didn't simply endorse Obama today. He endorsed American Muslims. And outside of the world of presidential politics and back to reality, that's got to be the most profound endorsement that's happened all election season.